The housing affordability crunch is here — mortgage rates rising at the same time as housing prices.
But is there a change on the horizon? Senior economist for National Association of Realtors Nadia Evangelou wrote a forecast for Market Watch and here are her thoughts on the housing market.
- Mortgage rates continue to rise – the 30-year fixed rate has doubled over the last six months; from 3% to 6%. Rates will climb, but at a slower pace.
- Signs that the market is cooling - Both rising mortgage rates and home prices hurt affordability for many buyers. “As a result, existing home sales have dropped for the last four months. I expect a larger reduction of the home sales activity in the following months, especially after summer months.”
- Home prices will continue to rise but at a slower pace – We still have inventory scarcity, but the housing shortage is starting to improve.
With a slightly different view; Capital Economics’ group chief economist Neil Shearing says don’t expect 2008-like housing-price drops, but he believes that the U.S. housing market could see a 5% drop in prices, especially in ‘overvalued’ areas.
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Market trends for Ocean County - 1st and 2nd Quarters of 2022:
- Sale’s Prices are UP significantly in the last 2 years
- Days on Market are DOWN significantly; homes are selling much faster
- Home Sales are DOWN, reflecting a lack of housing inventory
- If you’re thinking about selling, NOW may be the time!
1st Half of 2022 Ocean County Market Statistics for Selected Townships in Comparison to 2021
Stafford Twp. (Manahawkin)
- Median List Price: Up 18.82% and up over 33% compared to 2020
- Median Sale Price: Up 15.49% and up over 49% compared to 2020
- Median Days on Market: 13 (# of days on market before property sells)
- Sold Listings: Down 13.4% and down 33% compared to 2020 (due to lack of inventory)
- What’s Your Stafford Home Worth? Get a FREE, Instant Valuation
Barnegat Twp
- Median List Price: Up 14.29% and up over 26% compared to 2020
- Median Sale Price: Up 23.69% and up over 43% compared to 2020
- Median Days on Market: 12 (# of days on market before property sells)
- Sold Listings: Down 5.4% and down 11% compared to 2020 (due to lack of inventory)
- What’s Your Barnegat Home Worth? Get a FREE, Instant Valuation
Waretown
- Median List Price: Up 0.71% and up over 7% compared to 2020
- Median Sale Price: Up 2.86% and up over 43% compared to 2020
- Median Days on Market: 9 (# of days on market before property sells)
- Sold Listings: Down 40.2% and down 15% compared to 2020 (due to lack of inventory)
- What’s Your Waretown Home Worth? Get a FREE, Instant Valuation
Lacey Twp (Lanoka Harbor and Forked River)
- Median List Price: Up 21.10% and up over 48% compared to 2020
- Median Sale Price: Up 21.21% and up over 50% compared to 2020
- Median Days on Market: 10 (# of days on market before property sells)
- Sold Listings: Down 14.9% (due to lack of inventory)
- What’s Your Lacey Twp Home Worth? Get a FREE, Instant Valuation
Berkeley Twp (Bayville)
- Median List Price: Up 3.80% and up over 28% compared to 2020
- Median Sale Price: Up 20.48% and up over 40% compared to 2020
- Median Days on Market: 14 (# of days on market before property sells)
- Sold Listings: Down 19.0% and down over 8% compared to 2020 (due to lack of inventory)
- What’s Your Bayville Home Worth? Get a FREE, Instant Valuation
Toms River Township
- Median List Price: Up 14.62% and up over 28% compared to 2020
- Median Sale Price: Up 15.17% and up over 43% compared to 2020
- Median Days on Market: 12 (# of days on market before property sells)
- Sold Listings: Down 4.0% and down 8% compared to 2020 (due to lack of inventory)
- What’s Your Toms River Home Worth? Get a FREE, Instant Valuation
Brick Township
- Median List Price: Up 9.59% and up over 25% compared to 2020
- Median Sale Price: Up 14.71% and up over 38% compared to 2020
- Median Days on Market: 12 (# of days on market before property sells)
- Sold Listings: Down 12.1% and down over 16% compared to 2020 (due to lack of inventory)
- What’s Your Brick Twp Home Worth? Get a FREE, Instant Valuation
During the epidemic, increased demand from homebuyers simply exceeded supply, which continues today. Bidding wars and double-digit home price rise were the results. But with more houses being built and a reported dramatic decline in mortgage applications would indicate a slowing housing market in relation to recent history.
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While most real estate analysts don’t believe we’ll see anything like the crash of 2008, they do think that prices will not be increasing at the rate of the last 2.5 years.
Bottom Line: If you’re thinking about selling, NOW may be the time!
Karl Hess provides expert real estate services to residential buyers and sellers in Ocean County. Contact us today for more information on Ocean County Real Estate and for professional assistance navigating this complex home market.
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